GTC Sample Portfolio

Annualized Return: NEED MORE DATA
Standard Deviation (Monthly): 0.62%
Average Monthly Return: NEED DATA
Maximum Drawdown: -1.39%
Worst Monthly Drawdown: -1.19%
Max DD Over Annualized Return: N/A
Sharpe Ratio: NEED MORE DATA

HISTORY OF ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS

We will not specify that specifies our thoughts back to 2006 which has been exceedingly accurate (Including being bearish on Stocks in Feb. 2008, calling the GFC, describing the pieces, and turning bullish in Oct 2009). But simply recent comments in recent years, that ones can find.

November 2019 – Worldwide Markets Structure and Stability is worrying enough, that friends had asked me to specify my thoughts. There are SELECT banks in trouble. Europe is in danger of several problems. Worrying in the next several months, one bad risk event could seriously destabilize the worldwide economy.

March 2020 – The Fed made a policy error. They lowered Target Rate far too quickly and made no attempt at language guidance. The Fed is risking serious inflationary problems with the supply chain disruptions.

August 2020 – The Fed is risking another policy error by having Target Rate too low, for FAR too long. This is risking a serious inflationary problem. They need to raise the Target Rate.

February 2021 – Inflation is not “Transitory”. Expect the worst Inflation we have seen in recent memory, from uncoordinated Fiscal and Monetary Policy, in conjunction with large supply chain disruptions.

November 2022 – Inflation could be tamed, but the Fed HAS to keep raising their rate, and their foot on that ‘gas pedal’. The strength of the jobs market allows for this.

August 2023 – Inflation has been tamed to SOME extent. We are analogous in some respects to January 1977, when the Fed had tamed previous inflation, only for it to flare up, and become worse than it had before. We need to wait for further data.

February 2024 – Inflation has come down from peak levels. We now focus on reversing globalization; leading to greater vertical integration within the United States; which can generate productive inflation. If Inflation remains sticky above 2%, interest rates could normalize at higher than used to. Fed has room to maneuver with Stock Asset prices at all time highs and record low unemployment. We need to aggregate February, March and April Inflation data to gain a clearer picture of where we stand.

April 2024 – Inflation is now sticky, that we believe in Higher than normal Inflation and higher interest rates, for longer.