GTC Sample Portfolio

The following metrics track the results of the GTC Sample Portfolio, and is not intended to advertise or guarantee any results. The metrics below simply demonstrate how any trader may track their own performance metrics. The GTC Sample Portfolio, intended as such a demonstration; does not constitute investment advice. Hypothetical performance results may have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp difference between hypothetical performance results and the actual results achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spit of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and of all which can adversely affect actual trading results.

RECORD OF ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS

We will not specify that specifies our thoughts back to 2006 which has been exceedingly accurate (Including being bearish on Stocks in Feb. 2008, calling the GFC, describing the pieces, and turning bullish in Oct 2009). But simply recent comments in recent years, that ones can find.

November 2019 – Worldwide Markets Structure and Stability is worrying enough, that friends had asked me to specify my thoughts. There are SELECT banks in trouble. Europe is in danger of several problems. Worrying in the next several months, one bad risk event could seriously destabilize the worldwide economy.

March 2020 – The Fed made a policy error. They lowered Target Rate far too quickly and made no attempt at language guidance. The Fed is risking serious inflationary problems with the supply chain disruptions.

August 2020 – The Fed is risking another policy error by having Target Rate too low, for FAR too long. This is risking a serious inflationary problem. They need to raise the Target Rate.

February 2021 – Inflation is not “Transitory”. Expect the worst Inflation we have seen in recent memory, from uncoordinated Fiscal and Monetary Policy, in conjunction with large supply chain disruptions.

November 2022 – Inflation could be tamed, but the Fed HAS to keep raising their rate, and their foot on that ‘gas pedal’. The strength of the jobs market allows for this.

March 2023 – Despite all of the panic about a few banks that yes … are having problems? We do not see the risk in the banks at the moment. The risk we see, is of the Inflation I had been talking about since 2021 going structural.

August 2023 – Inflation has been tamed to SOME extent. We are analogous in some respects to January 1977, when the Fed had tamed previous inflation, only for it to flare up, and become worse than it had before. We need to wait for further data.

February 2024 – Inflation has come down from peak levels. We now focus on reversing globalization; leading to greater vertical integration within the United States; which can generate productive inflation. If Inflation remains sticky above 2%, interest rates could normalize at higher than used to. Fed has room to maneuver with Stock Asset prices at all time highs and record low unemployment. We need to aggregate February, March and April Inflation data to gain a clearer picture of where we stand.

April 2024 – Inflation is now sticky, that we believe in Higher than normal Inflation and higher interest rates, for longer.

July and August of 2024 – We modified our view from Higher Inflation for Longer, to a ‘neutral’ view by the beginning of July. In August, we specified that we see signs of softening but not overt weakness. Inflation is coming down, and we expected PPI and CPI to print lower. This is necessary to quell inflation, and is needed. But should we see some sort of ‘kicker event’ ? With equity valuations as extreme as they are (and they are extreme) the downside risk problem is that the entire economy and market unravels more quickly than has been seen on a historical basis.

September of 2024 – “The Rates Markets have lost their minds”. Yields have fallen far, far too low. The concept of 5 cuts by the Fed is insane. While inflation has come down, the risk of re-igniting Inflation has not yet abated. Core Inflation has begun to move the other way, and the danger is that CPI will begin to follow Core. The Fed, by cutting the rate by 50 basis points, is in danger of making a policy error. This can be interpreted as either A ) Far too aggressive by the Fed or B ) That they are not paying close enough attention to Inflation metrics, while Sticky Inflation remains at levels not seen since 1991. We expect higher interest rates.