“All analysis (of binary events) in the end? Is bullcrap” – DTG Maxim
This is the morning of April’s CPI and Core Inflation release. As stated many times, we don’t really ‘believe’ in predictions. We don’t know the future, and we don’t need to know the future. At the same time, we form general macro-economic thoughts? Why? How?
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Wednesday: 8:30 AM EST – Core Inflation and CPI
2:00 PM EST – FOMC Minutes
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – PPI
Friday: 10:00 AM EST – Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SOFR Yield Curve: the trends to higher yields continued last week into this week, as we traded at 4.3% in June 2025 SOFR this week. Tomorrow’s Core and CPI information will be critical, and with PPI and some more Fed data would be about all I need to solidify my stance in H4L+. I might wait for just a while longer, but it’s becoming more and more clear …
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted. As it has been. For some time.
… look at the Treasury Yield curve pictured. We have almost risen to the higher yields now of November of 2023. Just a hair off from 10 Year yields of 4.5%. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.364%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 5.043%.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain neutral, in a general, broad, overall bias last week. As with last week, we’re approaching a ‘decision’ moment, one way or another on turning bearish, or remaining neutral.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 15.64 and +0.46 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as warming up.
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: We are in Contango throughout the terms, with no real ‘hiccups’ jumping out at us, at least the way we look at VIX Term Structure. However, the terms have been in creep together towards higher vol.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) As mentioned in the twitter stream the other day, we have switched over to neutral on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain bullish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bearish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain bearish on price, bullish on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain bullish.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bullish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: The entire forward curve out to 2027 is in backwardation.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bullish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bullish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain bullish on Gold prices. We remain bullish on Silver.
Bitcoin / Crypto Markets: (/BTC or IBIT) We remain neutral on Bitcoin / Crypto Markets at this point.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain neutral on the US Dollar as an Index.
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