We are approaching the end of 2023, but this week in particular has two important things on the calendar to watch out for. Though at the moment? I’ve sort of checked out for the month truth be told.
We discuss this in the video entry below. As always, you can find the specifics of the Weekly Note, directly below the following video entry …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 8:30 AM EST – CPI Data
Wednesday: 8:30 AM EST – PPI Data
2:00 – 2:30 PM EST – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – Retail Sales Data
Friday: 8:30 AM EST NY Empire State Manufacturing
9:45 AM EST S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
SOFR Yield Curve: Down the terms, as I was looking to the 27’s up to the Blues, we moved all of last week to higher yields.
Treasury Yield Curve: Inverted.
While we had a rally in the middle of the week, the news moved us lower in price to higher yields, all along the curve in the last 5 days. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 5.1365%. However, we still have moved to lower yields along the curve, from the previous month.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. It seems we are getting a bit ‘toppy’, although we keep making new highs in risk markets
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 12.35 and -0.72 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool.
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us. A bit of a bounce here though, would not surprise us.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain neutral on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral. In both cases, I think it’s important to keep the larger view of price movement in view, for larger context.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: We had mentioned last week, that pressure was easing, and we have no moved out of Backwardation to Contango, at least out to what I was looking at, which was to Nov of 2024. Price has led the way.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We are bearish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain bullish on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bearish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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