We’re a little late with the Weekly note this week. The wife and I had decided that we needed a small getaway. We’re history nuts, so we took off for a Civil War Battlefield and relaxed for a few days.
But we are back now, to find that our longs are running, and our short-term trades are working out as well. As always, you can find the specifics of the Weekly Note, directly below the following video entry …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 8:30 AM Building Permits Prel. / Housing Starts
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – GDP Data
8:30 AM EST – Corporate Profits
Friday: 8:30 AM EST Core PCE Data
8:30 AM EST – Durable Goods
10:00 AM EST – Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SOFR Yield Curve: As we all know by now … down the terms we moved all of last week to lower yields, finishing at the cheapest yields thusfar in December; and the lowest yields since July. As with Treasuries …
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted.
…. and this is an arena where I’ve been somewhat (somewhat) wrong. I’ve been waiting for PA to slow down, to put on some bearish bets. Never came as price moved higher, finishing again at the highest prices since this past summer. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 5.0231%
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. We stated last week it seemed a ‘bit toppy’. But we keep making new highs in risk markets.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 12.57 and +0.30 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool….
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us. A bit of a bounce here though, would not surprise us.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We switched over to bullish on Equities last week.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we had switched over to bullish on price, bearish on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We switched over to bullish on price, bearish on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: We remain in Contango up to September of 2024.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bearish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We are switching over to neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bearish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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