One never knows when something dramatic and quite volatile will hit the market.
That being said as a disclaimer … it looks like a quiet week, to round out the end of 2023; here, in our final week of the year. And we discuss what’s on the way, with GTC Traders …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 9:00 AM EST Case Schiller and House Price Data
Wednesday: 2:00 PM EST FOMC Minutes
SOFR Yield Curve: As we round out the year, STIRs have remained pretty steady and quiet as we move into the end of the year. As with Treasuries …
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted.
…. and as with STIRs, price has remained pretty steady as we end out 2023. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 4.8912%
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. We stated last week it seemed a ‘bit toppy’.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.77 and +0.74 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool….
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bullish on Equities last week.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We switched over to bullish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bearish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we had switched over to bullish on price, bearish on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain bullish on price, bearish on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain bullish on price, bearish on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: We remain in Contango up to July of 2024.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bearish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bearish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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