No, I’m not talking about CME data package fees.
After the introduction, I want to discuss some of the phraseology and terms we will be using at GTC Traders. It’s “Professional”, but not “Professional”. I have stated that it’s a ‘copy / paste’. But there are a few changes made for readability for the newer self-directed retail trader; which relates to the fact that I try to emulate the Theoretical Physicist, Richard Feynman.
After which, we’ll discuss my continuing thoughts on Inflation.
And as always, you can find the specifics of our Weekly Note, underneath the attached video entry …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 9:45 AM to 10:00 AM EST S&P Global and ISM Services PMI
Friday: 8:30 AM EST – NFP and Unemployment
10:00 AM EST – Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SOFR Yield Curve: Down the terms, as I was looking to the 27’s up to the Blues, we moved all of last week to cheaper yields..
Treasury Yield Curve: Inverted.
Very obviously, as with SOFR, the news was the move to cheaper yields, all along the curve. Of special note was those near terms, up to the 1 year moving down to near ~500 BPS in yield.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. It seems we are getting a bit ‘toppy’, although we keep making new highs in risk markets
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.33 and +0.71 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool….
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us. A bit of a bounce here though, would not surprise me.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain neutral on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral. In both cases, I think it’s important to keep the larger view of price movement in view, for larger context.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: We had mentioned last week, that pressure was easing, and we have no moved out of Backwardation to Contango, at least out to what I was looking at, which was the 2024 Terms. Price has led the way.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain neutral on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We had switched over to bullish on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bearish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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