So much of what I’ve done in the past? May ‘seem’ like predictions.
I can assure you, that they are not. I don’t need a ‘prediction’ to make money from the markets. Then how does this work? What does this mean for inflation moving forwards? We discuss that, in this weeks “Weekly Note” …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Monday: 10:00 AM EST – New Home Sales Data
Tuesday: 9:00 AM EST – Case-Schiller Home Data
Wednesday: 8:30 AM EST – GDP Data
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – PCE Inflation Data
SOFR Yield Curve: We have been watching the March 2025. However, we now consider it appropriate to roll and begin looking at the June 2024 (not the March 2024) contract as the new ‘front white’ contract. Thus, we are now monitoring June of 2025, for SOFR 3 month interest rates. We can see that the Fed was right, and the market has been wrong, over the course of the last two months in the March of 2025. Now, let’s see where interest rates start landing; because as previously discussed we are focusing on Inflation data in aggregate for the remainder of this month, March and April.
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted. As it has been. For some time.
… as with STIRs, we have fallen to higher yields, lower price here in Treasuries, but remained flat for the last week up to the 5 year. The 52 week bill has been dropping steadily in price, to higher yields. Whereas from the Ultra-10’s (The real 10’s) to the Ultra-Bond, we’ve managed to rise in price a bit last week to slightly cheaper yields. The lows of February remain the supportive price structure, and as with STIRs, we are evaluating interest rates with future inflation data releases over the next month or two. With an ‘ear’ to any signs of continued structural and sticky inflation. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.4004%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 5.0106%.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, switched again last week over to neutral, in a general, broad, overall bias last week.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.93 and +0.19 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal risk and premium conditions as the market is in contango throughout the terms.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bullish on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain bearish on price, bullish on yield. Structure on TLT to watch is that $92.30 structure.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain neutral on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: The entire forward curve out to 2027 is in backwardation.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain neutral on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bullish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bullish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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