Much of what we do? Is to try to put a black number “in the box” or grid, at the end of the month. And we focus on that, because we definitely want a black number for the year end results. We did that for 2023.
Now we begin 2024. And the nice thing about beginning a new year, is that we have ‘plenty of runway’, so to speak.
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Wednesday: 10:00 AM EST – ISM Manufacturing PMI
2:00 PM EST – FOMC Minutes
Friday: 8:30 AM EST – NFP
SOFR Yield Curve: As we round out the year, STIRs have remained pretty steady and quiet as we move into the end of the year. As with Treasuries …
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted.
…. and as with STIRs, price has remained pretty stead as we end out 2023. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.406%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 4.8912%
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. We stated last week it seemed a ‘bit toppy’.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.77 and +0.74 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool.
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: We’re in Contango through the VX terms, indicating normal risk conditions.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bullish on Equities last week.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We switched over to bullish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bearish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we had switched over to bullish on price, bearish on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain bullish on price, bearish on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain bullish on price, bearish on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: We are in Contango throughout the terms, up to about June or July of 2024; which is meeting with the crux of the contrast with interest rate expectations.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bearish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bearish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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