We had turned neutral last week on the S&P 500 and other Indices (generally, like everyone else, we watch the S&P. You have to pick ‘something’). I had mentioned that I cannot recall a time, where I was positioned so delta neutral, and actually was this delta neutral in positioning for the market.
Thankfully? As I have said for years? I don’t know where the market is going … and I don’t need to know where the market is going.
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 8:30 AM EST – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (MASSIVE MISS at -43.7 to previous -14.5 and a -5 consensus)
Wednesday: 7:00 AM EST – Mortgage Data
8:30 AM EST – Retail Sales
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – Building Permits and Housing Data
Friday: 10:00 AM EST – Michigan Consumer Sentiment
SOFR Yield Curve: All the way out to the 2027’s, we have experienced lower yields, while we are settling back into the range established back on the 8th …
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted.
…. and as with STIRs, yields last week in Treasury dropped as price rallied. They remain somewhat elevated from the 2’s to the 10 Year, but from the 10 year to the Ultra’s, price is dropping quickly as yields rise. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.3996%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 4.7418%
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain bearish, in a general, broad, overall bias.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.94 and +0.70 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool.
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: We’re in Contango through the VX terms, indicating normal risk conditions.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We have switched to neutral on Equities last week.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain bullish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bearish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to IEI, we remain bullish on price, bearish on yield. On IEF we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. On TLT, we are moving over to bearish on price, bullish on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: Price is consolidating in the near term, and you can see Interest Rate Expectations RETURN to influencing the forward curve in the July 2024 Terms in Oil, on out …
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain neutral on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We have switched over to neutral on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We have switched over to neutral on the US Dollar as an Index.
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