So as the twitter stream will demonstrate, we’ve been wrapped up in this NVDA short as of late. We discuss how we finally accepted a small loss there … returning to ‘black’ for the month in the GTC Sample Portfolio, and our thoughts regarding a ‘stock market bubble’ …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 8:30 AM EST – Durable Goods
9:00 AM EST – S&P / Case Schiller Home Data
Thursday: 8:30 AM EST – Corporate Profit Data
8:30 AM EST – GDP Data
Friday: 8:30 AM EST – PCE Price Index MoM
11:30 AM EST – Fed Chair Powell Speech
SOFR Yield Curve: As you will note in the dot plots and SOFR curve, the Fed has raised their estimates of the length of time that Inflation will continue. They have interest rates in 2028, it’s close to 2.5%; whereas now in 2027, it’s now over 3% and in January of 2026; almost 4%. The numbers of the DOT plot are always in flux? But it let’s you know that right now, the Fed’s thought is to increase their projections.
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted. As it has been. For some time.
… With the majority of the discussion around ‘the cutting of interest rates this year’, the market has moved to cheaper interest rates, from the head of the curve, out to the 10 year. As of March 21st, at the 10 year? We are basically at the same yield that we were before FOMC. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.375%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 5.007%.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain neutral, in a general, broad, overall bias last week.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 12.92 and -0.12 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool …
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal risk and premium conditions as the market is in contango throughout the terms.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bullish on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain bullish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bearish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain bullish.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bullish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We switched over to bullish last week on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: The entire forward curve out to 2027 is in backwardation.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bullish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bullish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain bullish on Gold prices. We remain bullish on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain neutral on the US Dollar as an Index.
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