Still just waiting to take in econometric data on the Macro route.
As far as trades lately? I broke one of my trading rules last week. And at times? I think this can be a great thing. What am I talking about? We discuss that in the following short video entry …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 10:00 AM EST – PMI Data
Wednesday: 10:00 AM EST – Fed Powell Testimony
Thursday: 10:00 AM EST – Continuing Fed Powell Testimony
Friday: 8:30 AM EST – NFP
SOFR Yield Curve: We have started monitoring June of 2025, for SOFR 3 month interest rates. As previously discussed we are focusing on Inflation data in aggregate for the remainder of this month, March and April. Both the Fed and the market have short-term interest rates prices somewhat similarly to June of 2025, with Dec of 2024 having the market somewhat cheaper yields than the Fed median, and June of 2025 yields somewhat higher than the Fed median. From this area we will look to see where the data pulls us. Have mentioned that at this point, it’s completely unclear to us what we will see.
Treasury Yield Curve: The yield curve is inverted. As it has been. For some time.
… as with STIRs, we are evaluating interest rates with future inflation data releases over the next month or two. With an ‘ear’ to any signs of continued structural and sticky inflation according to a background thesis. It is of note that the Treasury Curve really has not moved beyond it’s highs or lows for the last 3 months. The 4 Week Bill Yield is 5.3935%. The 52 Week Bill yield is now at 4.9502%.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain neutral, in a general, broad, overall bias last week.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 13.12 and -0.12 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cool
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal risk and premium conditions as the market is in contango throughout the terms.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bullish on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to TLT we switched last week to neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We switched over to bullish last week on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: The entire forward curve out to 2027 is in backwardation.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We switched over to bullish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain bullish on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We switched over to bullish last wek on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bullish on the US Dollar as an Index.
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