Our comments surrounding the vagaries of the note this week.
Yes, one could line up each of the Weekly Note each week. Look for ‘hits’. Trades. Look at the GTC Sample portfolios. Drawdown. Review recent entries. In fact, we would encourage anyone to do this.
But what I would highlight to new and aspiring traders? Is that if you are trading in any periodicity longer than an intra-day trade? Note how long it takes for a bias to change. How much time a market can take, to show it’s hand. The same is true when it comes to turns in the economy …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
Here is the the note itself, for this week on a 0 to 15 day Periodicity …
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 8:30 AM EST – Existing Home Sales OCT
2:00 PM EST – FOMC Minutes
Wednesday: 8:30 AM EST – Durable Goods Orders MoM OCT
Thursday: Market Holiday, Cash Equities Closed
Friday: 8:30 AM EST – PMI Flash
SOFR Yield Curve: Across all of the Terms, in the last week we have moved to lower yields, higher prices
Treasury Yield Curve: Inverted.
Across all of the Terms, in the last week we have moved to lower yields, higher prices.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Gold, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk, we remain “Bullish” general, broad, overall bias. (Image attached)
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 14.19 and +0.38 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as cooling from warm….
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us. A bit of a bounce here though, would not surprise me.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES): We remain neutral on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We are switching over to neutral on S&P 500 High Yield price, neutral on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY out to IEF we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For TLT, we are are switching over as well to neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain neutral.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain neutral on price, neutral on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain bearish on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: December (CLZ2023) (Closest Month) is MORE expensive than February (CLG2023). December being worth more. Meaning we have are in Backwardation … December, being at a premium to February. And then from there, into subsequent terms.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bearish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain neutral on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain neutral on Gold prices. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We are switching over to bearish on the US Dollar.
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