We are doing something a little different with the Weekly Note this week.
This week, we will highlight a few thoughts in the video (and thus the video below). And you will find the specifics of the Weekly Note in the text below that video, copied from my Prop Firm …
You can find the video as below on YouTube, and is available in many other video venues (Vimeo, Odysee, etc)
This Week on the Calendar:
Tuesday: 9:00 AM EST – Case Schiller Home Prices
Wednesday: 10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing PMI ….. 2:00 PM – Fed Interest Rate Decision and 2:30 PM Press Conference
Friday: NFP
SOFR Yield Curve: Yield Bets being made for primary in the first Red, and the Reds, considering the volume. We are someone ‘stalled’ in yield for the last week. Higher for Longer still in play, while on the lookout for some sort of relief rally in price. Cautiously bearish longer-term.
Treasury Yield Curve: Inverted, and we are leaning towards a Bear Steepener.
Overall Risk: (Stock Indices, Long Bond, Bills): Overall Risk we remain “Neutral” general, broad, overall bias.
Equity Volatility: (VIX) We are at 20.63 and +0.63 at the moment on the day. We have volatility that I would rank as warm and getting warmer ….
Equity Volatility VIX TERM STRUCTURE: Normal conditions in Contango and nothing popping off to alert us.
Equities: (SPY, SPX or possibly the /ES) We remain bearish on Equities.
S&P 500 High Yield: (SPHD) We remain bearish on S&P 500 High Yield price, bullish on yield.
Treasuries: (FRONT: SHY, MIDCURVE: IEI, IEF, BACKEND: TLT or the /ZT, /ZF, /ZN, /TN, /ZB and /UB). On SHY we remain neutral on price, neutral on yield. On from IEI to TLT (Farthest out), we remain bearish on price, bullish on yield.
Emerging Markets: (PCY, VWO) On Emerging Market Debt prices (PCY), we remain bearish on price, bullish on yield. For Emerging Market Equity Prices (VWO), we remain bearish.
High-Yield: (HYG, JNK) We remain bearish on price, bullish on yield.
Commodities: (GSCI, DBC or GSG) We remain neutral on Commodity Prices as a whole index.
Crude Oil Term Structure: December (CLZ2023) (Closest Month) is MORE expensive than February (CLG2023). December being worth more. Meaning we have are in Backwardation … December, being at a premium to February. And then from there, into subsequent terms. This, with current geo-politcial factors indicating DEMAND conditions for Oil now, where it’s better to pay whatever price now, than wait to later.
Crude Oil Specifically: (USO, USL and /CL) We remain bullish on Oil Prices.
Gasoline Specifically: (UGA and /RB) We remain neutral on Gasoline Prices.
Gold and Silver Specifically: (GLD / /GC and SLV /SI) We remain bullish on Gold. We remain neutral on Silver.
Currency: ($DXY:IFUS, UUP) We remain bullish on the US Dollar.
——-
Disclaimer: None of the thoughts or posts at GTC Traders / gtctraders.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. GTC Traders simply writes such articles to delineate their thoughts for their own edification. All thoughts posted are simply individual thoughts as to process as of the time of writing, and are subject to change without notification to readers of this website. Stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of stocks and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, any trader may lose more than their original investment; especially in the case of the use of options. Any content on gtctraders.com should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. It is your responsibility to confirm and decide which trades to make.